The global pharmaceutical market in 2027 is 1.9 trillion US dollars?

Новости отрасли

Apr 07,2023

IQVIA predicts in its annual global drug use report that by 2027, the global drug market may increase to $ 1.9 trillion. Analysts of the Health Information Technology and Clinical Research Organization predict that the COVID-19 vaccine and therapy may increase another $ 500 billion for this.

Oncology Drugs

Oncology drugs are the highest-selling therapeutic agent in the world. It is expected to increase from 193 billion US dollars in 2022 to US $ 377 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 13-16%. The growth momentum of cancer drugs includes the increase in sales brought by the early diagnosis of patients, the continuous launch of new drugs, more widely obtained new anti -cancer drugs in more countries, and the treatment period of extending drugs with survival benefits.

Oncology drugs include all cancer treatments including chemotherapy, radiation therapy, hormone therapy and targeted therapies designed to kill cancer cells to provide a therapeutic effect. Cancer, being a chronic and debilitating disease, requires a wide range of therapies to eradicate cancer cells. Various therapies such as chemotherapy, gene therapy and immunotherapy are used for cancer treatment due to their therapeutic advantages. Each of these therapies has its own advantages and is a very popular cancer treatment option. The increasing demand for various types of oncology drugs can be attributed to the increasing incidence of cancer, and these different cancers may respond to different types of treatments.

Rising incidence of cancer is one of the major factors driving the oncology drugs market. Given the rising incidence of cancer, most of the pharmaceutical companies are undertaking extensive R&D efforts in the field of oncology. As a result, more products are being introduced in the oncology drugs market. In addition, increasing focus on developing targeted therapies (e.g., CAR-T cell therapy) to provide more significant therapeutic benefits is driving the oncology drugs market as new products are gaining regulatory approval for cancer treatment. However, potential side effects associated with various cancer therapies such as bone loss and cost of oncology drugs, especially in low- and middle-income countries, can be challenging factors for the growth of the oncology drugs market.

Key players in oncology drug development include GlaxoSmithKline, Eli Lilly & Company, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, AbbVie Inc., Amgen Inc., Sanofi, Merck & Co., Inc, Novartis AG, Pfizer Inc, AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb., Gilead Sciences, Inc., Janssen Global Services, LLC, BAYER AG., Celldex Therapeutics Inc., Alaunos Therapeutics, Inc., Astellas Pharma Inc., Genentech, Inc., Soz International GmbH, BeiGene, etc.。

Heavyweight oncology drugs include: Keytruda (Merck), Revlimid (Bristo Myers Squibb), Opdivo (Bristol Myers Squibb), Imbruvica (AbbVie), Ibrance (Pfizer), Perjeta (Genentech), Tecentriq (Genentech), Avastin (Genentech), Herceptin (Genentech), Rituximab (Genentech), Darzalex (Janssen Biotech), Xti (Astellas Pharma), Venclexta (Abbvie), Gazvya (Genentech), Jakafi (Incyte Corporation), etc.。

Immunological drugs

Immunological drugs are the second largest therapeutic area of the drug market, likely to grow to $177 billion by 2027. Immunologic agents are drugs that can alter the immune response by enhancing or suppressing the immune system. They are used to fight infections, prevent and treat certain diseases.

Immunologic agents include drugs used for immunosuppression to prevent graft rejection. They can be used as cancer chemotherapy agents. Some immune agents can down-regulate the inflammatory process and can be used to treat inflammatory conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis and autoimmune diseases. Common immune agents include three major groups:

Immunoglobulins

Immune boosters

Bacterial vaccines

Colony-stimulating factor

Interferon

Interleukins

Therapeutic vaccines

Vaccine combinations

Viral vaccines

Immunosuppressants

Neurocalcine inhibitors

Interleukin inhibitors

Selective immunosuppressants

Tumor necrosis factor alpha inhibitors

The 3-6% growth rate for immunologics is slowing down compared to their prime years as many key immunologics (e.g., Xumel) are facing or already facing biosimilar challenges in 2023. AbbVie's TNF inhibitor adalimumab (Humira), the best-selling super heavyweight of all time, is already facing biosimilar competition in the US market from January 2023 (Amgen's Amjevita).

Significant forces of immune agent drugs include：Abbott, Organon, Pfizer, Soz, Amneal Pharmaceuticals, Apotex, Teva Pharmaceuticals, Biocon, Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck, CSL Behring, Sanofi, Leading Pharma, Accord Healthcare Inc, Amgen, Nabi Biopharmaceuticals, Ascend Laboratories, Camber Pharmaceuticals Inc, Grifols USA, JOM Pharmaceuticals, etc.。

Diabetes Drugs

Diabetes is the third largest therapeutic area and will also grow at a rate of 3-6% per year. Diabetes is a chronic, life-threatening disease for which there is no cure. According to the World Health Organization, more than 400 million people worldwide are living with diabetes, and its treatment accounts for about 12% of total global health care spending. It has become a global epidemic. The significant growth in the diabetes drugs market can be attributed to various factors such as the rising prevalence of diabetes and the increasing number of health awareness related programs initiated by various health organizations. Currently, about 10% of all diabetes cases are type 1 and the rest are type 2.

As of 2021, North America holds the major market share, followed by Asia Pacific. The increase in the number of diabetes cases is mainly due to the increase in obesity in the population (weight gain leading to chronic inflammatory and metabolic disorders such as diabetes) due to unhealthy diet and sedentary lifestyle. The Asia Pacific market is mainly driven by the increasing demand for diabetes drugs in China and India. Currently, more than 129 million people are living with diabetes in China, while the number of people living with diabetes in India is expected to reach 82 million by 2027.

The diabetes drugs market is segmented by drug into insulin (basal or long-acting, push or rapid-acting, conventional human insulin drugs, and insulin biosimilars), oral antidiabetic drugs (α-glucosidase inhibitors, DPP-4 inhibitors, and SGLT-2 inhibitors), non-insulin injectable drugs (GLP-1 receptor agonists and glucagon analogs), and combination therapy drugs (combination insulin , oral combinations). The insulin segment holds a significant share of the market. More than 100 million people worldwide require insulin, including all people with type 1 diabetes and 10% to 25% of people with type 2 diabetes. The production of insulin is very complex and there are very few companies producing insulin in the market. As a result, there is fierce competition among these manufacturers. According to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), people with diabetes spent $966 billion in 2021, a large portion of which was spent on insulin medications by people with type 1 diabetes. Few people with type 2 diabetes also rely on insulin. Although only 10% of the diabetic population is type 1, their insulin intake is higher. The demand for insulin is driven by increased awareness of the benefits of insulin in the diabetic population, especially in emerging economies. Other factors such as rapid development of insulin delivery systems, drug and analogue development by large companies, and increasing elderly and obese population are likely to drive the insulin market growth.

The most important forces among diabetes drug developers include Novo Nordisk, Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, Merck & Co., Sanofi, AstraZeneca, and others.

IQVIA has labeled obesity as an emerging therapeutic area. Spending on obesity drugs grows from $2.5 billion in 2020 to $10 billion in 2022, with sales projected to reach $48 billion by 2027. But IQVIA's projections for this range from $17 billion to $100 billion, depending on the therapeutic guidance of obesity drug competitors, including Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, liruglutide and Eli Lilly's tirzepatide.

The future prospects for advanced cellular, genetic or RNA-based therapies are not entirely transparent. Analysts predict that total global spending on these modalities could grow from $8 billion today to $27 billion by 2027. But in the unpredictability of these advanced therapeutic modalities, their 2027 market sales could range from $12 to $80 billion.

Ref.

· Immunologic agents. Drugs.com.

· Diabetes care drugs market - growth, trends, covid-19 impact, forecasts (2023 - 2028). Mordor Intelligence.

· Immunology Market Size, Share & COVID-19 Impact Analysis, By Drug Class (MonoclonalImmunosuppressants, Others), By Disease Indication (Rheumatoid Arthritis, Psoriatic ArtSpondylitis, Inflammatory Bowel Disease, Prophylaxis of Organ Rejection, Others), By DistribRetail Pharmacies, Online Pharmacies), Regional Forecast, 2022-2029. Fortune Business Insights.

· Diabetes care drugs market - growth, trends, covid-19 impact, forecasts (2023 - 2028). Mordor Intelligence.

· Mullard, A. Drug sales to reach $1.9 trillion within 5 years? Nature Reviews Drug Discovery. 2023, 22, 172.

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